Communitas

Had a great birthday party for Lucy this weekend at the skating...

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 08:51:26 -0800

Had a great birthday party for Lucy this weekend at the skating rink downtown.

The Future of Broadcast TV’s Unsteady as Cable Strengthens - NYTimes.com Came across this article,...

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 06:15:27 -0800

The Future of Broadcast TV’s Unsteady as Cable Strengthens - NYTimes.com

Came across this article, which is about how Broadcast TV—CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX—is really struggling, while Cable TV channels are doing well.

It strikes me as an indication of how much the media industry operates on entrenched deal structures and not much at all on real value delivery to end users. Why do I say so? Because when consumers pay their $50 per month to the Cable Co., do they have any idea that Bravo is getting a piece of that and ABC is not? Nope.

So if I were a cable channel, I would not take comfort. Consumers indeed have made a habit of paying $50 a month for cable, but there value proposition for the consumer is a poor one. In time, technology will provide alternatives to consumers, and the cable model will unravel. Cable channels would do well to focus now on a compelling value proposition to consumers rather than simply cling to their distribution deals.

Lots of girls in the house tonight

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:05:42 -0800

Lots of girls in the house tonight

What Start Ups Are Really Like

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:10:00 -0800

Came across a great post from Paul Graham, the operator of Y Combinator. He asked all of the founders of start-ups he’d funded to write to him about what they were most surprised about in their start-up experience, and he complied them in to a fascinating—and very accurate in my opinion—look into the start-up experience.

Here are my favorite excerpts:

3. It’s an Emotional Roller-coaster

This was another one lots of people were surprised about. The ups and downs were more extreme than they were prepared for.

In a startup, things seem great one moment and hopeless the next. And by next, I mean a couple hours later.

The emotional ups and downs were the biggest surprise for me. One day, we’d think of ourselves as the next Google and dream of buying islands; the next, we’d be pondering how to let our loved ones know of our utter failure; and on and on.

Your most basic advice to founders is “just don’t die,” but the energy to keep a company going in lieu of unburdening success isn’t free; it is siphoned from the founders themselves.

***

5. Persistence Is the Key

A lot of founders were surprised how important persistence was in startups. It was both a negative and a positive surprise: they were surprised both by the degree of persistence required

Everyone said how determined and resilient you must be, but going through it made me realize that the determination required was still understated.

Several founders mentioned specifically how much more important persistence was than intelligence.

I’ve been surprised again and again by just how much more important persistence is than raw intelligence.

***

6. Think Long-Term

You need persistence because everything takes longer than you expect. A lot of people were surprised by that.

I’m continually surprised by how long everything can take. Assuming your product doesn’t experience the explosive growth that very few products do, everything from development to dealmaking (especially dealmaking) seems to take 2-3x longer than I always imagine.

One reason founders are surprised is that because they work fast, they expect everyone else to. There’s a shocking amount of shear stress at every point where a startup touches a more bureaucratic organization, like a big company or a VC fund. That’s why fundraising and the enterprise market kill and maim so many startups. [2]

Maybe they’ll listen to one of the more successful founders:

The top thing I didn’t understand before going into it is that persistence is the name of the game. For the vast majority of startups that become successful, it’s going to be a really long journey, at least 3 years and probably 5+.

There is a positive side to thinking longer-term. It’s not just that you have to resign yourself to everything taking longer than it should. If you work patiently it’s less stressful, and you can do better work:

Because we’re relaxed, it’s so much easier to have fun doing what we do. Gone is the awkward nervous energy fueled by the desperate need to not fail guiding our actions. We can concentrate on doing what’s best for our company, product, employees and customers.

***

7. Lots of Little Things

We often emphasize how rarely startups win simply because they hit on some magic idea. I think founders have now gotten that into their heads. But a lot were surprised to find this also applies within startups. You have to do lots of different things:

It’s much more of a grind than glamorous. A timeslice selected at random would more likely find me tracking down a weird DLL loading bug on Swedish Windows, or tracking down a bug in the financial model Excel spreadsheet the night before a board meeting, rather than having brilliant flashes of strategic insight.

I learnt never to bet on any one feature or deal or anything to bring you success. It is never a single thing. Everything is just incremental and you just have to keep doing lots of those things until you strike something.

There is no such thing as a killer feature. Or at least you won’t know what it is.

***

9. Engage Users

Product development is a conversation with the user that doesn’t really start till you launch. Before you launch, you’re like a police artist before he’s shown the first version of his sketch to the witness.

***

10. Change Your Idea

To benefit from engaging with users you have to be willing to change your idea. We’ve always encouraged founders to see a startup idea as a hypothesis rather than a blueprint. And yet they’re still surprised how well it works to change the idea.

***

15. You May Have to Play Games

Because investors are so bad at judging you, you have to work harder than you should at selling yourself. One founder said the thing that surprised him most was

The degree to which feigning certitude impressed investors.

A lot of what startup founders do is just posturing. It works.

***

16. Luck Is a Big Factor

Actually the best model would be to say that the outcome is the product of skill, determination, and luck. No matter how much skill and determination you have, if you roll a zero for luck, the outcome is zero.

These quotes about luck are not from founders whose startups failed. Founders who fail quickly tend to blame themselves. Founders who succeed quickly don’t usually realize how lucky they were. It’s the ones in the middle who see how important luck is.

***

The Super-Pattern

There were a few other patterns, but these were the biggest. One’s first thought when looking at them all is to ask if there’s a super-pattern, a pattern to the patterns.

When I look at the responses, the common theme is that starting a startup was like I said, but way more so. People just don’t seem to get how different it is till they do it. Why? The key to that mystery is to ask, how different from what? Once you phrase it that way, the answer is obvious: from a job. Everyone’s model of work is a job.

[Considering it relative to a job] explains why the ups and downs are surprisingly extreme. In a job there is much more damping. But it also explains why the good times are surprisingly good: most people can’t imagine such freedom. As you go down the list, almost all the surprises are surprising in how much a startup differs from a job.

You probably can’t overcome anything so pervasive as the model of work you grew up with. So the best solution is to be consciously aware of that.

The Last Picture Show

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:18:44 -0800

The Last Picture Show :

author: Larry McMurtry
name: toby
average rating: 3.86
book published: 1966
rating: 4
read at: 2009/11/19
date added: 2009/11/19
shelves:
review:
reminds me of springsteen in its…

Morgan's Run

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:18:42 -0800

Morgan's Run :

author: Colleen McCullough
name: toby
average rating: 3.76
book published: 2000
rating: 4
read at: 2009/11/06
date added: 2009/11/19
shelves:
review:

"My sister’s status update today: 10 years ago today Caine and I got married in a Burnsville..."

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:12:29 -0800

“My sister’s status update today:
10 years ago today Caine and I got married in a Burnsville courthouse while chewing gum and holding baby Hannah……would do it all again. I loved that. Just had to share it because I think it’s such a great reminder that sometimes the unexpected challenges in life turn out to be the greatest blessings.”

- Kita today on her blog

Did our first winter hike today at Bear Peak. At 7 miles, 3,000...

Sat, 14 Nov 2009 16:11:00 -0800

Did our first winter hike today at Bear Peak. At 7 miles, 3,000 vertical feet and 30 degree under a light snow, it was a great release after a week of airplanes and office buildings. It was also my first time using YakTrax—basically chains for your boots—which were invaluable in the snow.

Boston to San Fran

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:18:15 -0800

Typically you’d think this a miserable flight, but as the image above shows, being on Virgin and enjoying free wifi, it can be both productive and enjoyable. Thanks Google.

Kita and I watched Away We Go last night. It’s the story...

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 14:12:41 -0800

Kita and I watched Away We Go last night. It’s the story of a couple whose first pregnancy provokes them to realize that “real life” is starting and that they want to find the right place for their family and for the rest of their lives. They embark upon a trip to Arizona, Madison, WI, Montreal and Miami visiting friends and family looking to figure it out. It’s both funny and explores well the question of place and community in America which is an issue dear to me. I loved it and highly recommend it.

It is directed by Sam Mendes, written by the husband-and-wife team of Dave Eggers and Vendela Vida, and stars John Krasinski (The Office), Maya Rudolph (SNL). The soundtrack fantastic and is 80% by Alexi Murdoch, who was a classmate of mine in college. We were both English majors and had lots of classes together. His cowboy boots, Scotish accent, earnings were bohemian and mysterious back then, but I see now how it was all meant to be as he’s a great artist very reminicnet of Nick Drake. Here’s “All My Days” from the soundtrack.

We went to Eldorado Canyon State Park yesterday. Only 11 miles...

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 06:38:16 -0800

The posed family shot

View of the contiental divide

Sisters

We went to Eldorado Canyon State Park yesterday. Only 11 miles from our house. A great get-away.

My friend Adam in Frederick is a great home-brewer (as are many...

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:15:42 -0800

keg and CO2 tank in fridge

the beer line

headed up to the kitchen

the in-kitchen tap!

My friend Adam in Frederick is a great home-brewer (as are many of my friends there). His production has become so great that the labor around bottling has become a real drag.

So now he’s built what is a dream for any warm-blooded, beer-drinking man: the in-kitchen tap! Pure genius! It runs from his basement fridge up to the kitchen. As the orignal pourer of the cement upon which his basement fridge rests, I hope to have rights to pours from the tap.

Dark Fire (Matthew Shardlake #2)

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:01:16 -0800

Dark Fire (Matthew Shardlake #2) :

author: C.J. Sansom
name: toby
average rating: 3.93
book published: 2004
rating: 3
read at: 2009/11/06
date added: 11/06/09
shelves:
review:

The Devil's Company: A Novel

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:01:15 -0800

The Devil's Company: A Novel :

author: David Liss
name: toby
average rating: 4.02
book published: 2007
rating: 4
read at: 2009/11/06
date added: 11/06/09
shelves:
review:

Health Care & Obama Disappointment

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:37:33 -0800

I’ve written about health care before, but Kita sent me a link to the best write up on it to date from John Cassidy at the New Yorker.

He says what I feel about the situation with a lot more eloquence and analysis:

I regard an expansion of the government safety net as ethically essential, economically justified, and long overdue… But we will be dealing with its consequences for decades to come, and I think it’s important to be clear about what the reform amounts to.

Let’s remind ourselves of the basics. There are two big (and linked) problems with the current health-care system. It excludes 46.3 million Americans, according to the Census Bureau, and it is inordinately expensive. The proposed reform purports to tackle both of these problems; in fact, it only addresses the first one in any systematic manner. The future cost savings that the Administration and its congressional allies are promising to deliver are based on wishful thinking and sleight of hand. Over time, the reform, as proposed, would almost certainly add substantially to the budget deficit, thereby worsening the long-term fiscal crisis that the country faces

That’s the story. As an enthusiastic Obama campaign supporter, I’m quite disappointed by this, his first big reform initiative.

Health Care is a HUGE challenge, and we could have dealt with it by honestly confronting the truth of the situation and actually dealing with the costs. It would have been challenging, it would have required a national revolutionary fervor to make it happen—but frankly that’s what I expected from the Obama era.

Instead we’re just increasing our deficit, which is the last thing we should be doing.

Tools of the Trade

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:18:44 -0800

Tools of the Trade:

I like Mike’s post here about all of the tools out there. There are many more that we use too (GitHub, AWS, Trac, Zoho CRM, Less Accounting, RigthScale). Amazing all of the (low cost) services you can use to drive your business.

Two of the best—Jack Johnson and Eddie Vedder—doing...

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:07:20 -0800

Two of the best—Jack Johnson and Eddie Vedder—doing “Constellations.” From I Like This Song.

The Entreprenurial Battle

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:01:06 -0800

Brad Feld had a great post today of an email he received:

Yet, as I set out to raise money …I’ve noticed, or maybe more accurately, I’ve become aware of the ether that is between a venture investor and entrepreneur. In the ether, all things that can make or break a deal exist: idea, market risk, technical risk, team competence, economy, deal flow, competition, VC mood that day, entrepreneur pitch that day, first impression, gut feel, blog post for or against the idea read that morning, breakfast/no-breakfast, bias for or against, smarts or not-so-smarts of the VC and entrepreneur.

In my pitch experience, VCs I have been convinced hated me and my company after my pitch have invested. VCs I am sure as shit loved me and my company after my pitch blew me off. I have also been right that VCs I thought hated me and my company told me they in fact did; and, those who loved me and my company did in fact invest. It’s been a crap shoot at best.

Assuming there is something of merit in the idea, market, team and company, somewhere in the ether is a term sheet and a kick to the curb. Coalescing just the right combination of elements in the ether at the right time has proven to be more art than science. Anti-portfolios highlight how successful companies didn’t get it coalesced with one investor but did with another.

If I get it right and a financing comes together for my new company, I hope to have learned something that tips the scales of randomness in the scrum.

And I provided this comment:

That’s a great email. Thanks for sharing.

I am an experienced entrepreneur in the middle of the scrum myself (in fact I’m in discussions with Ryan & Seth at your firm, among others). The truth of start-up life is that it is a constant battle, there are ecstatic highs and vicious lows. I like VCs who don’t try to smooth it all over, but recognize the reality of that battle. In particular, I love the creed of Quest VP ; it recognizes that so much of the determinant of success is the entrepreneur’s fortitude in the battle.

As an entrepreneur, you have to embrace the battle and love it. It’s the only way to live. It’s great to hear about it from another entrepreneur’s prespective. To whomever it is: good luck!!!

The Quest principles:

We believe a successful startup must excel in these six points and more:

Surrounds itself with the best and the brightest of ambitious, dedicated and passionate people; the best give the expertise and experience needed, the brightest will always find innovative solutions and the ambition & passion will give the courage required to pick yourself up when you fail.

Understands that it will, baring incredible luck, likely fail catastrophically at some point and is always planning for this.

Has the patience, courage, conviction, and irrational faith to persevere even when there are better alternatives in the market and when the going gets tough.

Recognizes a significant and genuine market pain. Provides a cost-effective and adoptable solution to an undiscovered need or problem that exists and is better than any present, emerging or conceivable alternatives.

Knows how to successfully market and monetize their solution. Validates their market pain and monetization plan by lining up potential customers for their solution early on.

Executes, executes, and executes. Makes sure to do the right things and to do things right. Thomas Edison is known to have said “Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.” He is also known to have said “There is no substitute for hard work.”

One Riot to Power Yahoo Real-time Search

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:10:00 -0800

One Riot to Power Yahoo Real-time Search:

Congrats to (Boulder-based) One Riot! A big win for them.

Kita's Writing a Novel

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 08:01:47 -0800

Kita's Writing a Novel:

She blogged today about her writing club and her task of writing a novel. She’s a great writer and I can’t wait for it.

I really like the plot line that she’s come up with. I think she should share it on her blog. Please pester her about it.